Elections in Peru and Colombia: What is at Stake?

In this episode of Sustainable LatAm, we unpack the high-stakes elections approaching in Peru and Colombia.

Despite severe political instability—highlighted by Peru cycling through eight presidents in a single decade—both nations have managed to sustain surprisingly stable macroeconomies. We explore this fascinating disconnect, breaking down how the fear of crime, targeted social investments, and deep regional divides are driving voters to the polls.

Zooming out, we also analyze the massive geopolitical tug-of-war playing out in Latin America, from China’s infrastructure push via Peru's Chancay mega-port to the US's strategic counter-influence in Colombia.

Key Takeaways:

• The unpredictable nature of Peru's crowded 35-candidate race.
• The stark gap between actual crime statistics and public perception.
• The driving forces behind Gustavo Petro's polling surge in Colombia.
• US vs. China: The battle for strategic influence and infrastructure.
• The looming threat of fractured congresses and the necessity of complex coalition-building.

Production: Sustainable LatAm

Presenters 

• Andrew Thompson - International journalist & political-risk analyst with deep LatAm coverage (OBG, EIU, Latin News; ex-Head BBC Learning English).
• Alberto Souviron - International journalist and digital comms leader for EM investors; ex BBC/Newsweek/Lloyd’s Register. 
• Julian Seydoux - AI-driven finance entrepreneur (FirmView AI, Fast Audit AI); ex-Moody’s/Consilium; cross-border EM & LatAm focus. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

elections in the twelfth of April 35 candidates and the only thing is certain is that Atoprise can come anytime.

SPEAKER_03 0:25

Hello

Welcome & Introduction

SPEAKER_03 0:26

everyone today we're turning to look at two really important Latin American countries uh both on the eve of elections and they are Peru and Colombia. So we'll get right down to it. I'm joined as ever by Alberto who like me has got a journalistic background and by Julian who is more of an analytical economic analysis sort of point of view. Let's see what we can what we can work out about the likely outcomes in these elections. Alberto would you like to give us some general background?

SPEAKER_00 1:02

All right thank you Andrew and hello everybody. Well if something

Peru's Unpredictable Political Landscape

SPEAKER_00 1:10

I can say especially for Peru today and let's put this in in what these predictions is the unpredictability. It's going to come elections in the 12th of April 35 candidates and the only thing is certain is that a surprise can come anytime. We're going to do a more in-depth analysis where we're talking around this but just a couple of things. The main concerns of the Peruvian population today according to the polls and the news is rising crime, corruption, the political instability eight presidents in the last decade only and unemployment. So these are the main concerns. 35 candidates the polls are giving uh a lead to the two conservative candidates but most of these polls are based on Lima but it's really difficult to measure the real popularity when you're looking at the regions of different regions of Peru where 70% of the population lives. And as many media have been saying the next round because it's more more than certain that it's going to be a second round on this election is going to be defined by these regions who are going to be the two candidates. So nothing can be said at this moment who is going to be the surprise on all of this is that the the economy of Peru is continue to perform moderately well. It has a moderately good moderate good performance which it shows a little bit the separation between politics and economy in Peru with which is not always the case. The other big country that we're looking today is Colombia as you say there are going to be elections in Colombia by the end of May 31st of May the definitions there are a little bit more clear three big candidates are competing around that the surprise is probably the resurgence of the left the uh with the candidate Cepeda who is basically from the line of Gustavo Pretro former president but a huge increase in popularity of Gustavo Petro that is favoring the candidacy of Cepeda. But the conservative Teresa Valencia is surging in the polls has uh strong uh possibilities and we have also the third in question that is as as aspirilla the the uh right wing candidate as well more in the line of of Trump nobody's going to know to know what is happening yet but clearly clearly it these three are going to compete for the president and apart from elections there are big economic and political challenges for both countries.

SPEAKER_03 4:17

That's a little bit Alberto sorry to jump in but just to clarify that um the candidate is uh Paloma Valencia Paloma Valencia yes candidate um and there are lots of quite similar names in the in the lineup of candidates so um she's the the Centro Democratico woman can I just um take a slight step backwards and uh agree with everything you've said and um warn our listeners that we will be talking a lot about the number three because both countries we have three we have lots and lots of candidates of course but there are three that seem to be in for a chance to fight it out at the second ballot which will be between two rivals. So a lot of the election manoeuvring has been which of those three form an alliance to defeat the other one and how does that all work um and if I could if I can bother you with it um I'd just give you a little bit more on on Peru that we have um Keiko Fujimori the uh leader of the authoritarian Fuerza Popular populist sort of generally right wing party she according to the latest polls is on 17.3% um the much further right candidate who you also mentioned Rafael Lopez Aliaga is 17.2 percent just just behind so basically they're in a technical tie and then we have the sort of social democratic centrist center left candidate called Alfonso Lopez Chao who's on 7.9 percent so what we're saying is that there's a dead heat between the front two candidates um and the question is will that change um have you alberto or or julian got any reason for saying it's going to change rapidly I think you already gave us a bit of a a hint about that but can you tell us any more?

SPEAKER_00 6:22

Yes I I will jump in and there uh very quick andrew you have to understand how Peru uh behaves in in general or the structure of Peru Peru can be divided between Lima and the rest of the regions uh around and when when you're seeing this 70% of the population in Peru are living in the regions and the polls has a lot of difficulty to reach especially the rural areas or in the farther south in the farther north to see where the votes are going. And something that is really important to say is around one third of the voters according to polls are still undecided or are are saying that are not going to vote for any of the candidates. So that shows a little bit the level of uncertainty that we're having and why difficult it is really to predict who is going to win even in a second round that is going to happen. But the influence of of the regions are higher than than you think and I will give you a historical example Pedro Castillo who won in 2021 just close to to the vote of the first round in 2021 Pedro Castillo was completely unknown not even featuring in the polls and suddenly search just the last week or the last days of the election search and he won the election against Keiko Fujimori. And that has a lot to do with with the regional vote that that's uh a reason why to explain also we have to understand Peru has a high level of informality that is quite a high inequalities big divisions that in a way shapes the politics of the country as well and it's not very easy for candidates that are coming from the traditional elite of of Lima like Keiko Fugimori or the other candidate to sorry I forget the name of him Rafael Lopez Aliaga. That is not necessarily being accepted especially in the Andean regions of Peru that that that this quite division is quite strong.

SPEAKER_03 8:50

So one sorry sorry well one one thing I think we're saying and I just want to clarify that if it is what we're saying it is that the Peruvian left which many people believe was destroyed by the Pedro Castillo government and its collapse into absolute anarchy I think we're saying the Peruvian left might not be as dead as people think it's dead and it might come back creating a surge around one or two candidates like Pedro Castillo last time round who are at the moment appearing in support levels of only you know a few a single percentage digit. So we're the story we think is there could be a last minute switch it could be predicted by you know maybe something going wrong for the two more traditional candidates um and it is possible then that the two people who go through to the second round ballot might not be um Fujimori and Lopez Aliaga there might be a third in contention and and forgive me I interrupted you were about to ask Julian a question.

SPEAKER_00 10:06

No that that's it first I'm I'm going to answer for uh for what you're saying I agree with you uh when what we can see is that perhaps we can say that the first round uh one of these two candidates Fujimori or Lopez Aliaga are going to go to the second round but not the two of them regardless the the tie so we can expect a third on the place on this second round and on this you you quite right mentioned you we we we have Alfonso Lopez Chao who is a leftist economist who has been searching in the polls we have also Roberto Sanchez who was a former minister of Pedro Castillo and both are quite popular in the regions especially one in the south and the other in the rural areas where Castillo was strong.

SPEAKER_02 10:58

The third in contestation of this position is quite and is the comedian Carlos Álvarez who is more on the right he's more on the in on the with the discourse of anti-crime against the search of crime he can be seen sometimes as a more Trumpist in in many ways but it's a populist approach approach these are the three who who can be in the next round as we're saying

The Disconnect Between Politics and Economics

SPEAKER_02 11:28

I would like now to to ask a question to to Julian uh you as as a financial analyst and somebody who is looking on investments why Peru regardless this chronicle political instability is continuing being attracted to investments in certain areas how you can see this clearly separation sometimes between politics and economy good question no peru Peru is is uh is uh is extremely rich in many uh you know many of the raw materials that are consumed so it's a big commodity exporter so um that generates a lot of wealth around and uh um it's a fairly big economy and um and actually on you know on the on a macro level is actually a pretty well run country it's got I think the lowest GDP uh to debt to GDP uh ratio in in in in Latin America uh standing at around 30% which gives it a lot of you know room uh to you know fiscal maneuver to to do stuff um and uh and you know and historically it's been you know a a big exporting country uh um to uh the United States of course China more importantly uh actually this day China is is by far uh has been three times you know by far the biggest uh trading partner uh in the uh in the for for for Peru. Um and uh and that means that uh in a view it's it's a growing economy is still better um and it means attractive for for investment. Of course at some stage you had some big product firms who were starting to uh go further down further in into Peru and trying to find you know uh new new things to to to invest in beyond just uh the pure extractive industries because there was there was too wealth being generated uh for on on other things so uh so I think it's still a very interesting country and of course uh that aside from what the political situation is could I add there that um part of it is I think and this applies to both Peru and Colombia is that there are countries that have maintained quite high levels of macroeconomic stability so growth has been quite predictable um and uh if you like monitored and cared for by quite uh professional central bank officials again in both countries so um in a sense that is part of what's allowed the economy to be protected uh from the everyday political toing and froing anyway I I I I still think I and I agree with both of you is they are quite interesting in both countries but still is I would not say sort of miracle but it's really really this kind of of uh unexpected relation between the economy and the politics are so separate especially in Peru but you can see that in in Colombia as well I agree with the way with with you andrew the macroeconomy is normally predictable I think there are other elements that that uh I I would be controversial we we we have to also take in into account in the economies of both countries that is sometimes the informal informality in peru is 70 percent in Colombia is uh uh uh uh above 50 percent so it's quite high level of informality so the economy behaves in different ways this the the the parameters are different on the other side uh i think uh the drug economy uh is impacting in both countries as well and has certain level of influence not uh levels of within in in central america in terms of violence but uh with colombia yes but but

Crime, Violence, and Public Perception

SPEAKER_02 15:55

there is a level of influence of the informal economy related with the drugs i don't know what you see on on that element as well um i'm i i i've perhaps bored uh my colleagues um with uh a lot of numbers to do with homicide rates but i think it has to be said that one of the real drivers of electoral preoccupation is the perception of violence and I say perception deliberately because actual levels of violence may be quite different so before this podcast I had a look at some of the available data on homicide rates and I looked at the United States Peru and Colombia and and the perhaps surprising result is that in the United States in the year 2023 there were about 5.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants and in Peru in the same year there were 3.2 homicides per 100,000 meaning that just based on those figures alone um Peru can be a safer place than the United States which few people would would normally um comment on uh the figures for Colombia are much much higher and much more dramatic there there are 25.4 homicides per hundred thousand of the population so what I think is happening is that Peru is still by comparison to the rest of Latin America and the United States a relatively peaceful um ec country to the Peruvians it doesn't feel like that at all because uh domestic homicide rates have been increasing and media coverage has been emphasizing very high levels of gang violence so it gets tabloid uh peruvian newspapers cover it massively and the average Peruvian believes there is a real security crisis in the country i I mean there are real issues with security in the country but um they are perhaps being exaggerated by the news media and that's part of uh the election campaign so the two right wing candidates are making a big big thing um about taking direct action traumatic action to reduce violence as a lot of other new governments of the right are saying across Latin America I agree it perception makes everything you know that plays really well in in in politics having said that we cannot ignore two things that is happening in Peru that you already mentioned domestic violence has increased in Peru and that is contributing to this perception as you as you say and the other increasing has been another type of crime from what I read in a and in a report of America's quarterly that it says from January to September 2025 there were more than 2000 reports of extortions which is up to 29% compared to 2024.

SPEAKER_00 19:24

And they are based in inside screams if if we you compare on a more global balance obviously you see that these numbers probably are much lower than compared to other countries but I think the local population are seeing this as an increase and and being used by politicians because of this this sense of insecurity in the case of Colombia I think we the situation of violence is different the the Colombians in in a way are more used to to to the to the levels of violence but there's also a sensation that crime right has been increased away yeah and is being used by the right wing candidates against Petro the the sense under petro violence has increased yeah I agree with you is paradoxical because if we compare this to to other regions Latin America is not as violent as you can imagine in in in in in that way but clearly there is an increase of of violence that is perceived by the the population and and in the specific case of Colombia we know the violence is if you like more complicated because it's linked to um international criminal cartels it's linked to illegal mining since coca cocaine it has all sorts of ramifications and it has to be said and for me this is part this is a bit mysterious um it has to be said that uh Gustavo Petro's policies against violence have not been very successful.

SPEAKER_03 21:14

So in some ways the signs that his popularity has increased a bit is puzzling. He had this incredibly ambitious program um of create of having uh peace if you like negotiated with all criminal organizations at the same time which he called the program of total peace and total peace has not succeeded but there is a possibility um that um Ivan Sepeda the um candidate from Petro's party uh will start a new phase of peace talks if he were to win and maybe that is something that's making him more

Colombia's Leftist Resurgence and Petro's Surge

SPEAKER_03 21:58

attractive electorally and I'm not quite Certainly what's going on there.

SPEAKER_00 22:03

Yeah, I I totally agree. Colombia in that way could be very puzzle. But there is one thing that is really interesting to understand a little bit, this search of popularity of Petro, at least from what I read for several political analysts, local political analysts in Colombia. And there is a recent article of less than four days ago in America's Quarterly, who was talking about this search. And part of again is the game of perception. What Petro has managed apparently is to make visible all those high regions in Colombia that were forgotten in the past. And this class division. Colombia has been normally invested in certain areas in certain specific regions for big cities and infrastructure has been going there. But there are these areas like the Caribbean in the Caribbean region that were forgotten. And suddenly, especially in these last months, petrol has been increasing direct investments in those regions. And for many states, although these are short-term investments, short-term say not a long term or something that can be sustained in the time because there are no capabilities to in the regions. But it's clearly that the level of support from the state to the local governments has increased massively during the Petrus government, and that has been an impact on his popularity. The other element that he's saying is again, everybody is saying that has been simply a political maneuver that is going to create clientelism, but he has increased the minimum salary hugely. Yes. That has an impact, and from what I read, the he the right so far has not come with a reply. That's a little bit the the explanation. Still, I'm saying it's really interesting to see that a government who just a couple of months ago was very low in popularity in the last couple of months, has almost doubled his popularity to almost 50%. And it's a good question to say why it's happening on this.

SPEAKER_03 25:03

And and also bearing in mind what some people say is an iron rule of presidential elections, which is that the incumbent president, the party of power, always loses. Or if you look at the last 20 years in Latin America, whoever has been in power, when there are free elections, has been booted out. But what we're saying is that in Colombia's case, it is possible that the Petro candidate, Sepeda, will not be booted out, but could stand a chance of of winning. And I should just say, um, according to the latest available polls, uh, Separa is really out there in front with um 37.5% of voter preferences, um, followed by uh Paloma Valencia on 19.9%, and then by the far right candidate, Abelardo de la Piela, on 20.2%. So we have a technical, um, if you like, uh a technical uh heat between two of the three candidates likely to fighting for getting through to the second ballot. Um, and it looks that Sepera, I mean he's more than 10 points ahead, um, and that's um quite quite a significant advantage. The question will be can he maintain it through the final parts of the campaign?

SPEAKER_00 26:29

They look up that that's a big question, and there it's going to we we we have to see also what what is happening. I think it's going to be a second round, but but anything can happen in any election in in Latin America. But I think uh it's going to be a second round. And if there is a second round, uh regardless, uh and probably the most uh possible candidate who can win, if Valencia goes to the second round, probably she has more chances to compete against Sepada than aspirin.

SPEAKER_03 27:08

Yeah. And and going perhaps a bit beyond uh the subject of of this podcast, um whoever wins the elections, either in Peru or in Colombia, will lack an overall majority in Congress. So how policy gets um transferred into uh legislation and action will be very difficult and will require a lot of coalition building, which interestingly neither the Peruvians nor the Colombians in recent years have been very good at. Petro has had lots and lots of battles with Congress um comings and goings, and the relationship between various presidents in Peru and Congress has been very, very difficult, hence the very high number of impeachments.

SPEAKER_00 28:01

I agree. Just count the numbers. Eight presidents in ten years is quite uh uh strong number, but but shows also how the Congress in Peru, the legislative power, has lost its legitimacy. And I think this is going to be one of the biggest problems that the country is going to have now. And whoever wins in especially in Peru, I agree with you, will need to to do to we need to be some kind of artist to to establish uh coalition levels or consensus levels in a very fragmented uh country like East Peru.

SPEAKER_03 28:44

In Colombia, and I think forgive me for interrupting again one of the implications of this, of having lots and lots of candidates and lots of different parties in Congress, is that there is a structural factor creating corruption. Because if you if you want to get something done in Congress and you have to consider to pull together five, six, seven, eight political parties to get the majority you need in Congress, it is likely that you are also paying some money or uh distributing some favors to a number of those um parties uh that want uh which are basically opportunists. Um it's something that's happened for years in Brazil, for example, where the idea of presidential coalitionism, as they call it, is that the president pulls in all these people and offers them jobs, sinecures, advan political advantages of various types in exchange for their support, and that leads to high level high levels of corruption.

SPEAKER_00 29:56

I think corruption is one of the biggest issues that that is affecting the whole Latin America, but the in in these polls in in Peru and Colombia, especially in Peru, is a high concern for the voters. I I know that corruption represents, according to the polls, more than 20% of uh in in terms of level of worries that the voters have is quite high. I would like to jump a little bit uh beyond the local politics because uh and I will make a question to any of you who wants to to to jump on this, but how important is are these elections, especially Peru but also Colombia, for the United States taking in account the the new policy of the tornado doctrine?

SPEAKER_03 30:49

I'm waiting to see if Julian takes the bait.

SPEAKER_02 30:55

Well, it's it seems that clearly um Colombia is pretty important for the US. If we follow the logic. Um follow follow the the the the you know all the things that have been going on. So we first started with Venezuela, which we know what happened there. Um Mexico was then um you know had intelligence, the cartel was what were were were impacted. Uh Panama went back to be neutral from from being owned, you know, uh the ports being uh owned by a Chinese uh company. Um be neutral pushed by the United States, of course. Um then uh and then more recently you had the story about uh you know about uh about the DA um finding Petro as the you know as a or putting under under investigation for for for drug money or drug trafficking or whatever whatever the reason is. And um and we know that for for quite some time that that Trump has mentioned Colombia many times over, much more so than say some of the other countries. Uh more recently there are talks about you know the Greater America that includes everything north of the equator uh uh countries of which uh which Colombia is is uh is uh is right in the line of of uh of uh of um you know of uh interest from from from the from the United States. Uh in addition to that, uh it has a lot of things that interest the United States. So uh it's already the US still re still remains, I believe, the main trading partner of uh of Colombia. Uh and and therefore you know it's it seems to me that right now in the same way that uh you know we can s we can we can see the US being um interfering uh all over the place in many countries, politics and and businesses, that right now there's probably you know some action being made uh in in Colombia. What they are I have no idea. Uh but there would there's probably a lot of things happening or big preparation or things going on there. So I would certainly think that um in the geopolitical context, Colombia is of high importance to the US. Um Peru is also of high importance to the US in other places, but that goes through um you know they have a lot of uh minerals and probably of rare metals that lie somewhere in in the Peruvian uh landscape. Um but uh but there it's it's uh it's a much more stable country, macroeconomically speaking, that is, as Andrew pointed out before. Um but China is is its main trading partner by far. Uh we're talking about uh you know the so they export to China, huge amount of of their good. And and the US may try to reduce this, but the the difference is there uh has been there for quite some time. There's there's this talk about the development of uh of a port which will be effectively maintained or developed by by the Chinese um north of north of Lima. Um and and therefore it's gonna be much tougher uh way it's it's gonna be much tougher to to go in to interfere within the Peruvian elections or to to shift the balance in one way or another. So I would think Colombia definitely is is uh is the main uh is the main target right now.

SPEAKER_00 34:58

To reinforce a little bit of what you're saying, Julian, I I will add in numbers, uh something that Andrew likes as well. But when we're talking about exports, exports from to China from Peru represent 38 percent. Against only 12% of Peruan exports are going to the US. So you can see the big difference between the two markets and the importance. The other element that's important, as you say, is the port of the mega port of Changhai. Chiang Tai or Changhai? Chang'e. You can call it Changhai. Chiang Kai. And uh the local. But it's not just the infrastructure of this port that has created huge concerns to American militaries because of the possibly military use of that port uh in the future. But China has huge infrastructure investments in Peru, as uh as you say, yeah, especially in mining mining and also commodities. So it has a huge control. I I think uh although the the Trump uh foreign policy is trying to catch up, they have a uh a difficult time going around that. What are the Americans have been doing just at the beginning of the year? They they two two elements that we will need to take in consideration, and I think any Peruvian government will need to take in consideration, whoever wins, is that Peru the US are now investing in the port of El Callao to keep also military structure around that. And also has declared uh the local Peru as a non-NATO military partner, which I think that has to do message one to try to counterinfluence the the uh the influence of China, who has been military has had military exchanges with uh Peruvian militaries in the past, but also uh is part of the strategy of of the government of President Donald Trump in order to to put a hard hand against drugs uh and that the the war against drugs and and other policies, so they need military presence going around that.

SPEAKER_03 37:26

I I I agree with what you both said, uh, but I'd also add that um Donald Trump is a politician and he's very aware of how things play on the media in the United States. My feeling is that he'd like to continue projecting um the image of hardline against migration and drugs, and that having, if you like, symbolic things to do in Colombia or Peru, backing up that hardline uh policy would be very good for him. Um at the moment, of course, we know he's in some significant political difficulty over the role of the US in the Middle East war with Iran. Um, but he does like, if you like, to have success stories uh to tell. They lock up the lock up the lock.

SPEAKER_02 38:18

Yeah, I mean, yeah. I would say so yeah, you both know my view. I think uh I think uh the Iran things is is is uh you know it's is a distraction to a lot of things that are actually happening on multiple fronts, which are actual wins for the Trump administration. Um and that you know we we don't want to face uh two in in in in uh for you know for European need to suddenly have an ally not being so much of an ally but uh having a different relationship is is difficult in itself. Um but um but I go back to the to the simple idea, you know, if if uh if you have an energy crisis uh you know because of the Iranian war and elsewhere you have the biggest oil reserves, proven oil reserves on you know

The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: US vs. China

SPEAKER_02 39:19

in the world that you've just taken over in Venezuela. I think the Trump or the administration just met with with uh with uh with Delgado uh recently or something. Um and then you go and then the next one is is uh is uh is of course um uh Colombia. So one of the things that Colombia did recently is is was trying to get out of you know of these international disputes, um uh you know ways of dealing with disputes between companies and uh and linked to linked to you know with with uh with oil effectively. So um and so that goes completely against what I would say the US companies. So I think these these there will be a lot of increasing uh presence in in Colombia. You're absolutely right with with uh with the uh with the war on drugs, they talk a lot about it. Um again, I'm not convinced it's strictly speaking to do with drugs, the war on the drugs itself, but maybe in in other forms, but it does create tensions. And of course, we saw not so long ago there were already some action in Ecuador uh linked to that. Uh and so and so you know the it's it again it's it's everything's coming together, you know, just encircling the countries in many ways. And uh and I would I would think that it this is uh this would be worrisome if I was you know in the in the in in uh if I was in politics in Colombia for the for the party which is not uh a pro-Trump party. Uh of course we we we understand uh some of the situation, the level of violence, Colombia is a really different country to to Peru in that sense, as you highlighted, Angela. I mean the level of violence, and when we talk about numbers, homicides, you know, it's it's just it's just uh black and white, the two countries are uh are very, very different. Um that's why to some extent I think for the Chinese, you know, they are not uh prepared to they haven't Colombia hasn't hasn't fallen as the main trading ponder of of of uh of uh of China for for quite some time and and for and for a variety of reasons, but also because I don't think they they they quite understand how how things work then and why is there such a big difference between say Peru and Colombia and how you deal with with with uh with with with certain with some of the situations there. So um so yeah, I think there is uh this this you know this these terms are gonna be uh quite interesting. I I would still maintain that Colombia is is probably the most uh the most under pressure at this at this moment from uh the US administration. I'm not sure from the uh from the Chinese uh side what how they will maneuver this or the you know what what the situation is because they're on high alert on pretty much every every part of the world right now. You know, they need to deal with the energy crisis in Iran, they need to deal with some ramification, what it means for for trading partners uh all over from the relationship with Russia, they need to deal with the loss of Panama sports, they need to deal uh uh deal with uh what's going on in Argentina also because it's uh it's a friendly state to the to the US. They need to understand, you know, you know, if I was if you if you're a country which is not used to go out of its borders, which to some extent China has been, it's it's fairly recent in its in its in its uh in its cross-border in its uh attitude and going outside of of the of the immediate neighborhood uh that they have. Um you know, you need to you need to focus. Uh right now if I was to look, if I was you know to play Dev Zalak and I was to look from from their point of view, I would try and focus in areas where I'm strong already. So making sure that uh Peru is not uh doesn't doesn't fly away. Uh and you've already had the warning shot. I mean there was this scandal in February between which led to the fall of the presidency, which was basically you know pictures of uh the president and and the Chinese supposedly businessman. We don't have no idea what you no one says who was what's his name, whether he was actually Chinese or or a businessman. Just you know, just just pictures, uh just pictures of of of someone that could have been a Chinese businessman, but uh but but you know that's just that just that's just the first impact. Um you probably can feel that there will be some some other ones. Interestingly enough, when you look at the social media as well, the uh you know the TikTok has is is uh is basically almost on the par with um with the American firms uh with Facebook and so on in Peru. However in Colombia the American firms are still you know still have the upper hand uh at this present moment even though TikTok is is is coming is coming up but uh but still so you know they are the you have to look in in so many so many dimensions these days just to just to just to check you know cross-check what what what everyone is doing. But going back to my initial thoughts you know if I was if I was uh if I were the Chinese I would probably focus right now on uh on maintaining Peru as a as a status quo it's not gonna go it's gonna be a lot more uh it's a lot more difficult for the for for uh for the for the Chinese to uh to or for you know for for the US to enter the the Peruvian landscape simply because of the amount of trade that uh Peru is doing with China. It's a simple fact of economics. Unless the Americans decide to buy everything which but you know that that's another that's another uh that will open some in that uh I don't I don't foresee this anytime um however Brazil I think is the big one while for for China it's uh it's important to me sure that uh Brazil maintains its its neutral stance to some extent between uh between China and and and and and the US yeah I I I agree in in all what you both are saying in this and I think that the i if there is a place where the China where China is going to continue playing its cards it's going to be peru rather than Colombia Colombia is basically the US starf and I think the pressure that that Trump is putting on Colombia has to do a lot more with control and try to establish certain level of dominance in in in in inside the country.

SPEAKER_03 46:04

It's really interesting anyway that the relations between Trump and President Petro is has imp have improved uh in in the last months and that probably has to do also that the Trump administrations are not talking too much openly of what is going on in the polls in in in Colombia still I think that the Americans are going to to try to go for for a more uh a friendly phrase to them in Colombia and in Peru I think they are trying to do relations through the military approach and certain level of of investment putting pressure on on the Peruvian government I think the next president in in Peru is going to play a delicate balance between this competition between uh the the US and China because there is going to be more pressure from both sides

Election Predictions

SPEAKER_03 47:05

in the local we are getting a little bit quiet on all of this so let's play uh a a little bit the game that that you like a lot andrew let's see let's try to predict what is going to happen 12th of April after that who we seen playing a second round in in peru because I don't think we're going to have a president uh in these elections but who do you think are going to be the main players in the area I would I would risk because I I'm sure I'll be then I'll be proven wrong a second round runoff ballot between Ivan Cepeda the left wing candidate and Paloma Valencia the more traditional right wing candidate and I think that Abelardo de la piela who is um the far right social conservative ultra catholic I think he will be squeezed out uh of that contest the local the local I I tend to agree with you and what about peru what is your view do you think Keiko Fukimori is going to manage to to say okay the fourth one was the winning or or is going to be another respiration what's going to happen or can be happening predictive I would say that um the second round will be be will be between um Keiko um and Rafael Lopez Aliaga uh in other words that it will be between two right wing candidates and that in this case um the the Social Democrat Alfonso Lopez Chao although he may strengthen I don't think he'll strengthen quick enough to get into the final two but who knows what will really happen. Yeah the local so that that's a little bit the the the wettings that we're doing i in that I defer a little bit with you andre I think Keiko is going to go to second round as well but I think the the social democrats is going to to to go in this second round and probably can can can establish land but then to say who is going to be president I think is going to be difficult especially because of the the rise of the presentium of crime in in in Peru I think Keiko Fujimori has a strong uh hand on that yeah yeah and Julian what are your bets on that the local um in Peru yeah that's a good question between the two of you to keep uh I I'm not quite sure actually in Peru um I'll start with Colombia I think Colombia I think I agree with uh Andrew Cepeda Valencia and actually I would probably give a win for Valencia uh eventually um and so that's you know that my that's my that's my and that's for for a variety of reasons and factors and not least uh the the apoyo the from from the US um uh and on Peru I think it's a lot tougher to to to know and also it's a lot tougher to understand how long that person will stay yeah that's that's a big question we stay in power um but yeah I'm not sure yeah to be honest I I wouldn't I I wouldn't say anything I would I wouldn't know for Peru the local the local okay I think we are just right on time andrew and Julian so one thing that we are going to do for our next the podcast is after the elections in in peru we are going to analyze the results obviously in in in in a future episode hopefully we're going to have analysts with with us uh talking about this but I think regardless who wins in Colombia uh and peru like everything is happening in Latin America these are exacting exciting times to analyze and the the evolution of these countries today the lookup I think so I mean just just recently I think the US announced or they made a 500 million dollar investment into into a company with rare earth mineral access in Brazil things are just moving so fast all over the place it's it's uh you know it's uh it's quite incredible the lookup so with this I think Andrew you can tell us for a good goodbye so yes um well it's goodbye from all of us and we will of course be following all these subjects very closely to see if we can better understand and perhaps partly predict what's coming round the corner